Case Study 1: Forecasting
Using the Northern College Health Services visit volume in Appendix 6-1 on page 113 of the textbook, for this assignment, you will be providing a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using the average change, confidence interval, average percent change, moving averages, and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Use the Internet or Strayer Library to research at least two (2) examples of the forecasting methods being used in health services organizations.
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Write a four(4) page paper in which you:
- Explain each step in the forecasting process for each method.
- Provide a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.
- Provide a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.
- Conclude which forecasting method provides the best forecast, and provide a rationale for your conclusion.
Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:
- Be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and references must follow APA or school-specific format. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.
- Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length.
Appendix 6-1 Visit Volume for Northern Collage Health Services
Visits to Health Services
2005 Jan 21 2007 Jan 32
Feb 19 Feb 34
Mar 16 Mar 39
Apr 20 Apr 42
May 15 May 41
Jun 18 Jun 21
July 16 July 24
Aug 14 Aug 28
Sept 18 Sept 47
Oct 25 Oct 45
Nov 30 Nov 46
Dec 16 Dec 44
2006 Jan 22 2008 Jan 39
Feb 26 Feb 41
Mar 31 Mar 34
Apr 39 Apr 39
May 44 May 38
Jun 17 Jun 19
July 22 July 28
Aug 18 Aug 29
Sept 27 Sept 37
Oct 33 Oct 39